ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Do whale-flow signals predict where crypto goes next?

We score every radar signal against the price 24 hours later. This is what the recorded sample shows about direction and size.

Method: every radar signal from the last 90 days, recorded when sent and scored against the coin's price 24 hours later. Direction is which way price moved. The move is how far, either way. Signals under 24 hours old are left out, not counted as no move. Sample: 987 scored signals across all tracked coins.

40%

of the 987 scored signals were higher 24 hours later

Higher 40%Lower 60%

Direction leaned down.

This sample has no signal-free baseline, so part of that lean may be the whole market moving, not the signal.

Signal

Scored

Higher after 24h

Typical move, either way

Liquidation cascade

210

45%

1.0% to 6.5%

Unusual whale volume

209

38%

0.8% to 5.3%

Futures at a record

202

41%

0.8% to 4.0%

One very large trade

180

43%

0.5% to 1.9%

Funding at an extreme

100

33%

1.3% to 11.3%

Squeeze setup flipped

27%

1.1% to 5.3%

The tick marks 50%. The move range is the middle half of scored signals, drawn on one scale.

These signals mark unusual activity, not a direction to bet on. The terminal shows what was sent and what happened, never a forecast.

See the live signal record

Recomputed from the recorded signals on every visit. This describes what happened. It is not advice, and past behaviour does not predict future moves.