ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Do whale-flow signals predict where crypto goes next?
We track every signal the radar fires and score it against what price did 24 hours later. Here is what the recorded sample says about direction versus size.
Method: every signal the radar fired in the last 90 days, logged live at fire time and scored against the coin's price 24 hours later. Direction is which way it moved; the move is the size, either direction. A signal too recent to have a 24h outcome is left out, not counted as no move. Sample: 1496 scored events across all tracked coins.
51%
of the 1496 scored signals were higher 24 hours later
Direction was close to a coin flip. The signal is about attention and size, not which way price goes.
Signal
Scored
Went up
Typical 24h move
Unusual whale volume
337
56%
0.7% to 3.9%
Liquidation cascade
321
46%
0.6% to 12.6%
major block
232
56%
0.3% to 1.7%
deriv record
195
52%
0.6% to 3.8%
Squeeze setup flipped
185
38%
1.5% to 6.7%
Funding at an extreme
159
48%
1.9% to 10.9%
flow divergence
67
64%
0.3% to 1.4%
Read it straight: across 1496 flagged events, being higher or lower a day later was close to a coin flip. What these signals mark is unusual activity and larger-than-usual moves, not a direction to bet. That is why the terminal never shows a forecast, only what fired and what happened. The figures above update as new signals settle.
See the live signal recordThis is a living study: the numbers are recomputed from the recorded ledger, not frozen. It is descriptive, not advice, and past behaviour does not predict future moves.