Unusual whale activity right now

What just turned unusual on each coin: whale trading, forced closes, a costly fee. And what the price did the last times.

What stands out in the last day: whales bought all three.

What stands out in the last day: whales bought all three.

Whales traded three coins heavily 6 to 15 hours ago, and all three are down since, while the market is flat today.

See the numbers

They traded $202M of BTC both ways (down 2.8% since) and bought SOL (down 3.1% anyway) and DOGE (down 3.9% anyway). The last 9 times whales traded BTC both ways like this split 1 higher, 4 lower and 4 about flat a day later, typically moving about 1.0% either way; the last one, 4 days ago, was up 1.0%.

  1. BTC Whales traded $202M both ways 15h ago, about three times normal. Down 2.8% since.

  2. SOL Whales bought far above normal 6h ago. Down 3.1% since anyway. The last 15 times split 6 higher, 7 lower and 2 about flat a day later, typically moving about 1.9% either way; the last one, 5 days ago, was down 1.0%.

  3. DOGE Whales bought far above normal 13h ago. Down 3.9% since anyway. The last 18 times split 9 higher, 7 lower and 2 about flat a day later, typically moving about 2.9% either way; the last one, 37 days ago, was up 3.2%.

Right now

26 min ago UZEC Whales buying Since it began no price 2 earlier times, no price a day later

Earlier today

1h ago HYPE Whales selling Since it began no price yet Last time +1.9% a day later · 19 of 37 up
2h ago XRP Whales buying Since it began -0.9% Last time -5.6% a day later · 12 of 21 up
4h ago ERA Costly to bet on a fall Since it began +0.3% 1 earlier time, no price a day later
5h ago BTC Bets on a fall force-closed Since it began -2.0% Last time -2.1% a day later · 17 of 51 higher
6h ago JCT Costly to bet on a rise Since it began no price 0 of 3 higher a day later · 2 no price
9h ago CC Costly to bet on a fall Since it began -2.5% Last time -2.5% a day later · 3 of 8 higher
13h ago DOGE Whales buying Since it began -3.9% Last time +3.2% a day later · 9 of 18 up
15h ago BTC Whales trading both ways 3x its normal hour Since it began -2.8% Last time +1.0% a day later · 1 of 9 up
15h ago GRAM Whales buying Since it began -5.4% Last time -8.9% a day later · 5 of 14 up
16h ago SPCX Whales buying Since it began -0.7% Last time -1.3% a day later · 1 of 6 up
17h ago HBAR Whales buying Since it began -4.4% Last time +2.2% a day later · 2 of 5 up
23h ago PRIME Whales selling Since it began no price 1 of 1 up a day later · 6 no price · last time +2.4%
24h ago APT Whales selling Since it began no price Last time -0.4% a day later · 5 of 12 up

Also unusual, no price for these: UBTCselling, 2h agoTBTCbuying, 14h agoKBTCboth ways, 15h agoCIRBTCboth ways, 21h agoUETHbuying, 22h ago

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Every time, every coin

Whales A day after whale buying the price was higher 46% of the time (ordinary 47%); after selling, lower 40% (ordinary 44%); after trading both ways, higher 38% (ordinary 40%). An hour after, it moved more than usual 61% of the time (ordinary 50%).

Forced closes A day after bets on a rise were force-closed the price was higher 43% of the time (ordinary 41%); after bets on a fall were, higher 43% (ordinary 47%).

Costly bets A day after betting on a rise turned costly the price was higher 30% of the time, less often than ordinary (43%); after betting on a fall did, higher 39% (ordinary 38%).

The counts behind these

Whales 2,350 times on 141 coins since Aug 16

After whales bought 942 times

1 hour later 28% higher · 33% lower of 777 with a price · 165 without ordinary: 25% higher · 24% lower, from the hours around 772 of those 777 times 491 of 772 moved more than usual (64%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 39% higher · 38% lower of 775 with a price · 167 without ordinary: 36% higher · 34% lower, from the hours around 770 of those 775 times 473 of 770 moved more than usual (61%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 46% higher · 44% lower of 770 with a price · 172 without · 652 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 47% higher · 41% lower, from the hours around 764 of those 770 times 425 of 764 moved more than usual (56%) · ordinary 50%

After whales sold 1,233 times

1 hour later 30% higher · 29% lower of 1,068 with a price · 165 without ordinary: 24% higher · 24% lower, from the hours around 1,064 of those 1,068 times 641 of 1,064 moved more than usual (60%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 40% higher · 33% lower of 1,068 with a price · 165 without ordinary: 34% higher · 35% lower, from the hours around 1,064 of those 1,068 times 618 of 1,064 moved more than usual (58%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 49% higher · 40% lower of 1,065 with a price · 168 without · 794 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 43% higher · 44% lower, from the hours around 1,055 of those 1,065 times 572 of 1,055 moved more than usual (54%) · ordinary 50%

After whales traded both ways 175 times

1 hour later 30% higher · 23% lower of 129 with a price · 46 without ordinary: 22% higher · 24% lower, from the hours around 129 of those 129 times 70 of 129 moved more than usual (54%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 36% higher · 40% lower of 129 with a price · 46 without ordinary: 32% higher · 35% lower, from the hours around 128 of those 129 times 66 of 128 moved more than usual (52%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 38% higher · 48% lower of 128 with a price · 47 without · 67 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 40% higher · 47% lower, from the hours around 127 of those 128 times 64 of 127 moved more than usual (50%) · ordinary 50%

Forced closes 946 times on 67 coins since Aug 16

After bets on a rise were force-closed 475 times

1 hour later 26% higher · 21% lower of 436 with a price · 39 without ordinary: 21% higher · 23% lower, from the hours around 433 of those 436 times 229 of 433 moved more than usual (53%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 38% higher · 29% lower of 435 with a price · 40 without ordinary: 32% higher · 34% lower, from the hours around 433 of those 435 times 232 of 433 moved more than usual (54%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 43% higher · 47% lower of 432 with a price · 43 without · 307 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 41% higher · 47% lower, from the hours around 431 of those 432 times 221 of 431 moved more than usual (51%) · ordinary 50%

After bets on a fall were force-closed 471 times

1 hour later 23% higher · 23% lower of 445 with a price · 26 without ordinary: 22% higher · 20% lower, from the hours around 442 of those 445 times 243 of 442 moved more than usual (55%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 34% higher · 33% lower of 444 with a price · 27 without ordinary: 33% higher · 31% lower, from the hours around 442 of those 444 times 243 of 442 moved more than usual (55%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 43% higher · 44% lower of 443 with a price · 28 without · 370 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 47% higher · 39% lower, from the hours around 440 of those 443 times 243 of 440 moved more than usual (55%) · ordinary 50%

Costly bets 663 times on 129 coins since Aug 16

After betting on a rise turned costly 209 times

1 hour later 22% higher · 42% lower of 85 with a price · 124 without ordinary: 31% higher · 31% lower, from the hours around 82 of those 85 times 44 of 82 moved more than usual (54%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 31% higher · 53% lower of 85 with a price · 124 without ordinary: 39% higher · 40% lower, from the hours around 82 of those 85 times 44 of 82 moved more than usual (54%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 30% higher · 56% lower of 79 with a price · 130 without · 41 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 43% higher · 47% lower, from the hours around 77 of those 79 times 44 of 77 moved more than usual (57%) · ordinary 50%

After betting on a fall turned costly 454 times

1 hour later 21% higher · 24% lower of 318 with a price · 136 without ordinary: 24% higher · 26% lower, from the hours around 294 of those 318 times 144 of 294 moved more than usual (49%) · ordinary 50%
4 hours later 30% higher · 37% lower of 308 with a price · 146 without ordinary: 33% higher · 38% lower, from the hours around 288 of those 308 times 146 of 288 moved more than usual (51%) · ordinary 50%
1 day later 39% higher · 50% lower of 296 with a price · 158 without · 153 of them on Hyperliquid prices ordinary: 38% higher · 49% lower, from the hours around 281 of those 296 times 145 of 281 moved more than usual (52%) · ordinary 50%

Ordinary is the same coin's other hours within 7 days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices. Moved more than usual means further, up or down, than the middle move of those ordinary hours.

How every alert is checked, hits and misses

Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.

How this is counted
  • Unusual means whales traded far more of the coin in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. The last times are the same coin with whales on the same side, in the last 90 days.
  • Forced closes: within one minute, bets on one side were closed by force on at least three exchanges. Costly bets: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% (for bets on a rise) or 0.03% (for bets on a fall). Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same coin and side.
  • Moved more than usual means the move a day later was further, up or down, than the middle move of that coin's ordinary hours over a day. Ordinary hours beat their own middle move half the time.
  • A day later is the price 24 hours after the end of the hour the unusual trading began, against the price at the end of that hour. Within half a percent either way is about flat. Since it began is counted from the price when it was logged where we hold one, otherwise from the end of that hour.
  • Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For a coin or an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix. The row says "on Hyperliquid" and the coin's page marks each such time.
  • Ordinary is the same coin's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary and is left out of that comparison; the counts say how many it rests on.
  • No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is counted as no price, never as a move.
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