Radar / AVAX
AVAX: every time whale trading went unusual
17 times in the last 78 days that whales traded far more AVAX in one hour than is normal for it. Also listed: 14 times bets were closed by force, 1 time a bet turned costly to hold.
Whales trading both ways, began 6 hours ago. The price is +1.6% since it began at $8.45.
The case both ways
Facts with their sources, and what followed the last times of each kind. Neither side is weighed.
Points up
- The Avalanche Foundation announced a $220 million investment fund called Blizzard to back ecosystem projects through equity, token purchases and business support.cryptobriefing
- The DIFC Courts in Dubai began recording a cryptographic fingerprint of each court order on the Avalanche C-Chain.cryptonews · 14 Oct
- The VanEck Avalanche ETF, ticker VAVX, began trading on Nasdaq on January 26, 2026, offering exposure to AVAX price and staking rewards.thedefiant · 26 Jan
- Japan's NEC is exploring stablecoin payments on Avalanche, according to an Avalanche statement reported by 24/7 Wall St.247wallst
Points down
- Aave froze its lending markets on Avalanche after a suspected drain of Binance hot wallets sent about 1.81 million AVAX to the chain.cryptobriefing · 29 Oct
- Tokenomist lists a Foundation allocation release of 1,666,800 AVAX for November 8, 2026.coinranking · 8 Nov
- VanEck's website reported total net assets of $19.92 million in the VAVX fund as of October 20, 2026.vaneck · 20 Oct
- AVAX around the last 21 PCE inflation reports: higher 6 times, lower 12 a day later, a typical move of -2.3% and -1.9% over the week.our own prices
Dated ahead
- US October CPI inflation report (BLS)
- US October producer price index (BLS)
- FOMC minutes release
- PCE inflation report (October 2026) 6 up · 12 down · -2.3%
The last times
- AVAX around the last 41 Fed decisions: higher 17 times, lower 23 a day later, a typical move of -1.2% and -0.3% over the week.our own prices
Avalanche is a high throughput smart contract blockchain platform. (Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 (L1), Avalanche Ecosystem)
AVAX price, with each time marked
Hourly, Oct 8 to Nov 9. A break in the line is an hour with no price.
whales buying far more than normalwhales selling far more than normalforced closes or a costly fee
Where the price was a day later
Every time, newest first
Times are UTC. Under each move: AVAX's usual move over the same stretch around then.
| When | What | Price then | 1 hour later | 4 hours later | 1 day later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 12:00 UTC6 hours ago | Whales trading both waysnow | $8.45+5.1% in that hour | +4.2%more than its usual 0.39% | +3.5%more than its usual 0.67% | not due yet |
| Nov 1, 06:00 UTC9 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $8.91-0.4% in that hour | -0.3%usual 0.36% | -1.2%more than its usual 0.69% | -3.9%more than its usual 1.9% |
| Oct 17, 07:00 UTC23 days ago | Whales selling | $10.010.0% in that hour | +0.3%usual 0.36% | -0.5%usual 0.81% | -2.2%usual 2.4% |
| Oct 7, 21:00 UTC33 days ago | Whales selling | $10.98Hyperliquid-2.3% in that hour | +0.9%more than its usual 0.41% | +0.7%usual 0.81% | -8.2%more than its usual 2.5% |
| Oct 2, 18:00 UTC38 days ago | Whales selling | $10.59Hyperliquid-4.2% in that hour | 0.0%usual 0.48% | +1.2%more than its usual 1.0% | +5.1%more than its usual 2.3% |
| Oct 1, 15:00 UTC39 days ago | Whales selling | $10.89Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | -1.1%more than its usual 0.47% | +1.0%more than its usual 1.0% | +2.2%usual 2.3% |
| Oct 1, 00:00 UTC40 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $10.86Hyperliquid-0.8% in that hour | +0.1%usual 0.46% | +2.5%more than its usual 1.0% | +0.8%usual 2.3% |
| Sep 29, 15:00 UTC41 days ago | Whales selling | $11.22Hyperliquid-2.6% in that hour | -0.5%more than its usual 0.47% | +1.1%more than its usual 0.90% | -2.3%more than its usual 2.0% |
| Sep 29, 00:00 UTC42 days ago | Whales buying | $10.69Hyperliquid+0.8% in that hour | -1.5%more than its usual 0.47% | -2.1%more than its usual 0.92% | +6.9%more than its usual 2.1% |
| Sep 27, 07:00 UTC43 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 1 min earlier | $11.16Hyperliquid+1.9% in that hour | -0.5%usual 0.52% | -1.5%more than its usual 1.1% | -7.2%more than its usual 2.0% |
| Sep 27, 07:00 UTC43 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 1 min later | $11.16Hyperliquid+1.9% in that hour | -0.5%usual 0.51% | -1.5%more than its usual 1.0% | -7.2%more than its usual 2.1% |
| Sep 26, 14:00 UTC44 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were selling 4h earlier | $11.04Hyperliquid+1.7% in that hour | -0.5%usual 0.54% | -2.4%more than its usual 1.1% | -0.9%usual 2.3% |
| Sep 26, 10:00 UTC44 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a fall were force-closed 4h later | $10.78Hyperliquid+1.5% in that hour | +1.7%more than its usual 0.55% | +2.4%more than its usual 1.3% | +2.3%usual 2.3% |
| Sep 25, 11:00 UTC45 days ago | Whales buying | $10.59Hyperliquid+1.7% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.57% | -2.2%more than its usual 1.3% | +3.5%more than its usual 2.7% |
| Sep 24, 12:00 UTC46 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $10.08Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | +1.9%more than its usual 0.56% | +3.6%more than its usual 1.3% | +5.0%more than its usual 4.0% |
| Sep 24, 00:00 UTC47 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $10.21Hyperliquid-0.6% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.56% | +1.4%more than its usual 1.3% | 0.0%usual 4.2% |
| Sep 22, 05:00 UTC49 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a rise were force-closed 8 min earlier | $10.71Hyperliquid-0.5% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.56% | +2.1%more than its usual 1.2% | +4.6%more than its usual 4.0% |
| Sep 22, 04:00 UTC49 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closedWhales were selling 8 min later | $10.77Hyperliquid-2.2% in that hour | -0.5%usual 0.54% | +1.2%more than its usual 1.1% | +3.5%usual 4.2% |
| Sep 21, 21:00 UTC49 days ago | Whales selling | $11.34Hyperliquid+1.7% in that hour | -0.7%more than its usual 0.54% | -1.4%more than its usual 1.1% | -2.2%usual 3.9% |
| Sep 21, 05:00 UTC50 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $11.34Hyperliquid-1.9% in that hour | -1.7%more than its usual 0.49% | -0.6%usual 1.0% | -5.5%more than its usual 3.7% |
| Sep 20, 09:00 UTC50 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $9.81Hyperliquid+1.7% in that hour | -0.4%usual 0.47% | +7.9%more than its usual 1.0% | +14.9%more than its usual 3.5% |
| Sep 19, 16:00 UTC51 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $9.70Hyperliquid+2.5% in that hour | -0.5%more than its usual 0.46% | +0.5%usual 1.0% | +16.7%more than its usual 3.4% |
| Sep 19, 10:00 UTC51 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were selling 57 min earlier | $9.16Hyperliquid+1.8% in that hour | +1.8%more than its usual 0.44% | +3.0%more than its usual 1.0% | +6.6%more than its usual 3.3% |
| Sep 19, 09:00 UTC51 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a fall were force-closed 57 min later | $9.00Hyperliquid+2.2% in that hour | +1.8%more than its usual 0.45% | +4.3%more than its usual 1.0% | +9.0%more than its usual 3.1% |
| Sep 19, 01:00 UTC52 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $8.70Hyperliquid+4.1% in that hour | -1.1%more than its usual 0.43% | -2.5%more than its usual 0.90% | +12.0%more than its usual 3.3% |
| Sep 18, 11:00 UTC52 days ago | Whales buying | $7.95Hyperliquid-0.8% in that hour | +0.7%more than its usual 0.44% | +2.1%more than its usual 0.90% | +17.4%more than its usual 2.7% |
| Sep 17, 12:00 UTC53 days ago | Whales buying | $7.61Hyperliquid+0.8% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.43% | +0.1%usual 0.90% | +5.1%more than its usual 2.5% |
| Sep 17, 02:00 UTC54 days ago | Whales selling | $7.53Hyperliquid0.0% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.43% | -0.1%usual 0.88% | +2.6%more than its usual 2.6% |
| Sep 16, 14:00 UTC54 days ago | Whales selling | $7.23Hyperliquid-0.2% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.43% | +0.6%usual 0.92% | +4.7%more than its usual 3.0% |
| Sep 11, 09:00 UTC59 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $7.40Hyperliquid-1.3% in that hour | -0.6%more than its usual 0.32% | +4.9%more than its usual 0.62% | +0.6%usual 2.5% |
| Sep 7, 12:00 UTC63 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $8.05Hyperliquid+2.3% in that hour | +0.3%more than its usual 0.29% | +0.2%usual 0.55% | -0.2%usual 1.9% |
| Aug 11, 20:00 UTC90 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $6.30Hyperliquid+0.5% in that hour | +0.1%usual 0.21% | -0.3%usual 0.46% | +1.3%more than its usual 1.1% |
How far above normal each time ran, and its buy and sell split, come with a paid plan. Start free, no card New accounts get 7 days of Pro. No card, nothing to cancel.
Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.
How this is counted
A time starts when whales trade far more AVAX in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. We note the price at the end of that hour, then one hour, four hours and one day later. Within half a percent either way is about flat.
Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is then counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix: 29 of the 32 times here, each marked in the table.
Bets closed by force: within one minute, bets on one side were force-closed on at least three exchanges. A bet turned costly to hold: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% for bets on a rise or 0.03% for bets on a fall. Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same side.
In that hour, under the price, is the move from the end of the hour before to the end of the hour it began in. It is the hour it happened, not what came after.
The usual move is the middle move of AVAX's ordinary hours over the same stretch: half of them moved less, half more. Moved more than usual means further than that, up or down.
Ordinary is AVAX's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary.
No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is left out of the counts and never treated as a move.
