Radar / DOT
DOT: every time whale trading went unusual
9 times in the last 90 days that whales traded far more DOT in one hour than is normal for it. Also listed: 12 times bets were closed by force, 2 times a bet turned costly to hold.
Whales selling, began 8 hours ago. The price is -8.5% since it began at $0.752.
The case both ways
Facts with their sources, and what followed the last times of each kind. Neither side is weighed.
Points up
- Referendum 1710 set a hard ceiling of 2.1 billion DOT, and about 1.708 billion DOT had been issued by October 17, 2026.cryptoticker · 17 Oct
- According to a cryptonews analysis, the 21Shares Polkadot ETF recorded about $785,000 of inflows in April 2026.cryptonews · 30 Apr
- New DOT issuance stepped down on March 14, 2026, under the capped schedule that replaced open-ended minting.cryptoticker · 14 Mar
- Runtime upgrade v2.0.5 added Revive, a smart contract platform that runs both PVM and EVM contracts, with enactment set for January 27, 2026.forum.polkadot · 27 Jan
Points down
- Whales mostly sold DOT in the unusual time that began 8 hours ago.
- According to CoinGecko's news feed, DOT dropped 7.8% after governance approved a new user strategy for Polkadot.coingecko
- DOT around the last 21 PCE inflation reports: higher 6 times, lower 15 a day later, a typical move of -2.9% and -4.3% over the week.our own prices
Dated ahead
- FOMC minutes release
- PCE inflation report (October 2026) 6 up · 15 down · -2.9%
- BTC monthly options expiry
- Fed rate decision and projections 17 up · 23 down · -0.7%
The last times
- The last 3 times whales sold it like this: higher 3 times, lower 0 a day later.
- DOT around the last 41 Fed decisions: higher 17 times, lower 23 a day later, a typical move of -0.7% and -2.5% over the week.our own prices
Polkadot is a platform that allows diverse blockchains to transfer messages, including value, in a trust-free fashion; sharing their unique features while pooling their security. (Smart Contract Platform, Polkadot Ecosystem, Proof of Stake
DOT price, with each time marked
Hourly, Oct 13 to Nov 15. A break in the line is an hour with no price.
whales buying far more than normalwhales selling far more than normalforced closes or a costly fee
Where the price was a day later
Every time, newest first
Times are UTC. Under each move: DOT's usual move over the same stretch around then.
| When | What | Price then | 1 hour later | 4 hours later | 1 day later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 18:00 UTC8 hours ago | Whales sellingnow | $0.752-0.3% in that hour | -0.8%more than its usual 0.44% | -8.2%more than its usual 1.0% | not due yet |
| Nov 12, 03:00 UTC3 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $0.8441-0.5% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.44% | -0.1%usual 1.0% | -4.5%more than its usual 2.0% |
| Nov 2, 11:00 UTC13 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.94-0.3% in that hour | -0.3%usual 0.42% | -0.5%usual 0.71% | +0.5%usual 1.6% |
| Oct 27, 04:00 UTC19 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.992+0.1% in that hour | 0.0%usual 0.43% | +0.1%usual 0.80% | +1.3%usual 1.9% |
| Oct 18, 00:00 UTC28 days ago | Whales buying | $1.11-0.7% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.54% | -0.4%usual 1.2% | +0.8%usual 3.0% |
| Oct 10, 01:00 UTC36 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 3h earlier | $1.28Hyperliquid+4.3% in that hour | 0.0%usual 0.47% | -1.0%usual 1.1% | -1.6%usual 2.9% |
| Oct 9, 23:00 UTC36 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 3h later | $1.24Hyperliquid+0.8% in that hour | -0.8%more than its usual 0.47% | +2.6%more than its usual 1.1% | +1.8%usual 2.9% |
| Oct 7, 08:00 UTC39 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $1.12Hyperliquid-0.7% in that hour | -0.5%more than its usual 0.47% | -1.5%more than its usual 1.0% | -2.0%usual 2.9% |
| Oct 5, 21:00 UTC40 days ago | Whales buying | $1.23Hyperliquid0.0% in that hour | -0.5%usual 0.49% | -1.0%more than its usual 1.0% | -2.6%usual 2.9% |
| Oct 4, 08:00 UTC42 days ago | Whales selling | $1.18Hyperliquid-0.3% in that hour | +0.9%more than its usual 0.55% | +0.7%usual 1.0% | +2.9%more than its usual 2.8% |
| Oct 3, 17:00 UTC42 days ago | Whales buying | $1.20Hyperliquid+0.3% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.56% | -1.1%more than its usual 1.0% | -0.6%usual 2.8% |
| Sep 27, 06:00 UTC49 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $1.27Hyperliquid+2.6% in that hour | +0.6%more than its usual 0.61% | -1.5%more than its usual 1.2% | -3.2%more than its usual 2.9% |
| Sep 22, 05:00 UTC54 days ago | Whales buying | $1.17Hyperliquid-0.7% in that hour | -1.0%more than its usual 0.60% | -0.3%usual 1.2% | +1.2%usual 3.7% |
| Sep 21, 10:00 UTC55 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $1.20Hyperliquid+2.7% in that hour | -0.6%more than its usual 0.56% | -0.8%usual 1.1% | -2.8%usual 4.0% |
| Sep 17, 11:00 UTC59 days ago | Whales selling | $1.02Hyperliquid0.0% in that hour | +0.6%more than its usual 0.53% | +4.1%more than its usual 1.0% | +10.1%more than its usual 3.3% |
| Sep 15, 07:00 UTC61 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.9824Hyperliquid-0.7% in that hour | +0.6%more than its usual 0.54% | +0.6%usual 1.0% | -3.7%more than its usual 3.1% |
| Sep 13, 04:00 UTC63 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $1.01Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | +1.0%more than its usual 0.53% | -0.2%usual 1.0% | +1.3%usual 3.8% |
| Sep 11, 05:00 UTC65 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $1.15Hyperliquid+0.9% in that hour | +0.4%usual 0.52% | -4.5%more than its usual 1.0% | -8.9%more than its usual 4.9% |
| Sep 9, 11:00 UTC67 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $1.18Hyperliquid+0.3% in that hour | -0.6%more than its usual 0.50% | -3.7%more than its usual 0.94% | -7.0%more than its usual 3.9% |
| Sep 8, 14:00 UTC68 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $1.12Hyperliquid+4.6% in that hour | +6.5%more than its usual 0.51% | +7.9%more than its usual 0.93% | +0.8%usual 3.6% |
| Sep 7, 23:00 UTC68 days ago | Whales selling | $1.06Hyperliquid+1.8% in that hour | +0.9%more than its usual 0.54% | +1.6%more than its usual 1.0% | +17.2%more than its usual 3.6% |
| Sep 7, 13:00 UTC69 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $1.06Hyperliquid+3.5% in that hour | +1.1%more than its usual 0.51% | +3.6%more than its usual 0.90% | +1.5%usual 3.5% |
| Sep 6, 11:00 UTC70 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $0.9846Hyperliquid+1.2% in that hour | -1.5%more than its usual 0.54% | -3.0%more than its usual 1.0% | -0.6%usual 3.7% |
How far above normal each time ran, and its buy and sell split, come with a paid plan. Start free, no card New accounts get 7 days of Pro. No card, nothing to cancel.
Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.
How this is counted
A time starts when whales trade far more DOT in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. We note the price at the end of that hour, then one hour, four hours and one day later. Within half a percent either way is about flat.
Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is then counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix: 18 of the 23 times here, each marked in the table.
Bets closed by force: within one minute, bets on one side were force-closed on at least three exchanges. A bet turned costly to hold: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% for bets on a rise or 0.03% for bets on a fall. Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same side.
In that hour, under the price, is the move from the end of the hour before to the end of the hour it began in. It is the hour it happened, not what came after.
The usual move is the middle move of DOT's ordinary hours over the same stretch: half of them moved less, half more. Moved more than usual means further than that, up or down.
Ordinary is DOT's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary.
No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is left out of the counts and never treated as a move.
