Radar / OP

OP: every time whale trading went unusual

2 times in the last 25 days that whales traded far more OP in one hour than is normal for it. Also listed: 2 times a bet turned costly to hold.

Whales selling, began 2 hours ago. The price is -1.9% since it began at $0.1411 on Hyperliquid.

OP price, with each time marked

Hourly, Sep 21 to Oct 11. A break in the line is an hour with no price.

$0.1469 $0.1201

whales buying far more than normalwhales selling far more than normalforced closes or a costly fee

Where the price was a day later

After whales sold, 2 times
1 down1 not due yet
Ordinary hours around that time: 60% up · 5% about flat · 35% down
Moved more than usual: 2 of 2 in the hour itself · 1 of 2 an hour later · 1 of 1 4 hours later · 1 of 1 a day later
After betting on a fall turned costly, 2 times
1 up1 down
Ordinary hours around those times: 47% up · 11% about flat · 42% down
Moved more than usual: 2 of 2 in the hour itself · 1 of 2 an hour later · 1 of 2 4 hours later · 2 of 2 a day later

Every time, newest first

Times are UTC. Under each move: OP's usual move over the same stretch around then.

When What Price then 1 hour later 4 hours later 1 day later
Oct 14, 14:00 UTC2 hours ago Whales sellingnow $0.1411Hyperliquid-1.0% in that hour -1.9%more than its usual 0.76% not due yet not due yet
Sep 23, 20:00 UTC21 days ago Costly to bet on a fall $0.1229Hyperliquid-0.9% in that hour +0.7%usual 0.86% +0.4%usual 1.5% +7.6%more than its usual 4.7%
Sep 23, 02:00 UTC22 days ago Whales selling $0.1375Hyperliquid+3.1% in that hour +0.5%usual 0.84% +1.6%more than its usual 1.5% -9.0%more than its usual 4.9%
Jul 27, 16:00 UTC79 days ago Costly to bet on a fall $0.09193Hyperliquid+1.0% in that hour -0.7%more than its usual 0.31% -0.8%more than its usual 0.68% -3.2%more than its usual 1.9%

How far above normal each time ran, and its buy and sell split, come with a paid plan. Start free, no card New accounts get 7 days of Pro. No card, nothing to cancel.

Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.

How this is counted

A time starts when whales trade far more OP in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. We note the price at the end of that hour, then one hour, four hours and one day later. Within half a percent either way is about flat.

Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is then counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix: 4 of the 4 times here, each marked in the table.

Bets closed by force: within one minute, bets on one side were force-closed on at least three exchanges. A bet turned costly to hold: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% for bets on a rise or 0.03% for bets on a fall. Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same side.

In that hour, under the price, is the move from the end of the hour before to the end of the hour it began in. It is the hour it happened, not what came after.

The usual move is the middle move of OP's ordinary hours over the same stretch: half of them moved less, half more. Moved more than usual means further than that, up or down.

Ordinary is OP's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary.

No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is left out of the counts and never treated as a move.