Radar / TAO
TAO: every time whale trading went unusual
29 times in the last 75 days that whales traded far more TAO in one hour than is normal for it. Also listed: 10 times bets were closed by force.
Whales selling, began 10 hours ago. The price is +1.4% since it began at $217.16.
The case both ways
Facts with their sources, and what followed the last times of each kind. Neither side is weighed.
Points up
- Grayscale filed a registration statement with the SEC on December 30, 2025 to convert its Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GTAO.SEC · 30 Dec 2025
- Grayscale filed an amended registration with the SEC on October 23 to list GTAO on NYSE Arca, subject to regulator and exchange approval.kucoin · 23 Oct
- CoinMarketCap's AI report says TAO rose 9-10% on September 22, 2026, as Bitcoin's breakout lifted altcoins and subnet revenue news drew attention.coinmarketcap · 22 Sep
- The Robin τ upgrade doubled the number of subnet slots from 128 to 256.hoge
Points down
- Whales mostly sold TAO in the unusual time that began 10 hours ago.
- Covenant AI, which ran subnets SN3, SN81 and SN39, announced on April 10, 2026 that it was leaving Bittensor, citing centralized governance; co-founder Jacob Steeves denied the allegations.cointelegraph · 10 Apr
- TAO's price fell about 20% to roughly $262 after Covenant AI announced its exit on April 10, 2026, according to CryptoNewsz.cryptonewsz · 10 Apr
- Grayscale says it cannot stake the TAO held in its trust because the required regulatory conditions have not been met.kucoin
Dated ahead
- PCE inflation report (October 2026) 6 up · 5 down · +0.9%
- Fed rate decision and projections 2 up · 5 down · -3.6%
- PCE inflation report (November 2026) 6 up · 5 down · +0.9%
- PCE inflation report (December 2026) 6 up · 5 down · +0.9%
The last times
- The last 13 times whales sold it like this: higher 7 times, lower 6 a day later.
- TAO around the last 11 PCE inflation reports: higher 6 times, lower 5 a day later, a typical move of +0.9% and -3.8% over the week.our own prices
Bittensor is an open-source protocol that powers a decentralized, blockchain-based machine learning network. (Artificial Intelligence (AI), Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 (L1))
TAO price, with each time marked
Hourly, Oct 5 to Nov 6. A break in the line is an hour with no price.
whales buying far more than normalwhales selling far more than normalforced closes or a costly fee
Where the price was a day later
Every time, newest first
Times are UTC. Under each move: TAO's usual move over the same stretch around then.
| When | What | Price then | 1 hour later | 4 hours later | 1 day later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 15:00 UTC10 hours ago | Whales sellingnow | $217.16-3.6% in that hour | +0.9%more than its usual 0.41% | +1.6%more than its usual 0.78% | not due yet |
| Nov 2, 17:00 UTC3 days ago | Whales selling | $224.31-1.0% in that hour | 0.0%usual 0.39% | +0.4%usual 0.80% | +0.9%usual 2.6% |
| Oct 16, 17:00 UTC20 days ago | Whales selling | $275.80-0.8% in that hour | -0.8%more than its usual 0.44% | -1.5%more than its usual 0.90% | -3.0%more than its usual 2.8% |
| Oct 8, 12:00 UTC29 days ago | Whales selling | $278.20-0.5% in that hour | +0.3%usual 0.44% | -5.3%more than its usual 1.0% | -1.2%usual 3.0% |
| Oct 7, 02:00 UTC30 days ago | Whales buying | $292.40-1.6% in that hour | +0.3%usual 0.42% | +2.9%more than its usual 0.95% | -0.2%usual 2.8% |
| Oct 2, 18:00 UTC34 days ago | Whales selling | $287.79Hyperliquid-5.6% in that hour | -0.6%usual 0.59% | +0.3%usual 1.1% | +2.9%more than its usual 2.6% |
| Sep 29, 19:00 UTC37 days ago | Whales selling | $303.05Hyperliquid-1.8% in that hour | +0.5%usual 0.65% | -0.9%usual 1.1% | -1.1%usual 2.9% |
| Sep 29, 09:00 UTC38 days ago | Whales trading both ways | $313.46Hyperliquid-0.7% in that hour | +0.1%usual 0.66% | +0.5%usual 1.1% | -3.3%more than its usual 2.9% |
| Sep 26, 12:00 UTC41 days ago | Whales trading both waysBets on a fall were force-closed 45 min earlier | $331.48Hyperliquid+0.4% in that hour | -1.6%more than its usual 0.72% | +0.9%usual 1.3% | +0.3%usual 4.2% |
| Sep 26, 11:00 UTC41 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were trading both ways 45 min later | $330.10Hyperliquid+3.1% in that hour | +0.4%usual 0.76% | +2.7%more than its usual 1.3% | +0.1%usual 4.1% |
| Sep 25, 13:00 UTC41 days ago | Whales selling | $304.27Hyperliquid-0.8% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.77% | -0.1%usual 1.3% | +7.3%more than its usual 4.1% |
| Sep 23, 22:00 UTC43 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $287.13Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | +0.1%usual 0.80% | +0.4%usual 1.3% | +2.5%usual 4.7% |
| Sep 23, 14:00 UTC43 days ago | Whales buying | $302.93Hyperliquid-2.8% in that hour | -4.1%more than its usual 0.74% | -3.8%more than its usual 1.4% | -5.5%more than its usual 5.0% |
| Sep 23, 08:00 UTC44 days ago | Whales selling | $310.32Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.72% | -0.6%usual 1.4% | -7.3%more than its usual 5.1% |
| Sep 21, 19:00 UTC45 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $307.67Hyperliquid+7.5% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.72% | +4.3%more than its usual 1.4% | +1.6%usual 5.5% |
| Sep 21, 08:00 UTC46 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 23 min earlier | $277.08Hyperliquid+1.7% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.66% | +3.9%more than its usual 1.4% | +17.1%more than its usual 5.6% |
| Sep 21, 08:00 UTC46 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 23 min later | $277.08Hyperliquid+1.7% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.71% | +3.9%more than its usual 1.4% | +17.1%more than its usual 5.5% |
| Sep 20, 17:00 UTC46 days ago | Whales selling | $262.25Hyperliquid-1.1% in that hour | 0.0%usual 0.63% | -0.3%usual 1.2% | +7.1%more than its usual 5.5% |
| Sep 19, 21:00 UTC47 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $262.47Hyperliquid-0.9% in that hour | +1.2%more than its usual 0.66% | +0.5%usual 1.2% | -0.4%usual 5.0% |
| Sep 19, 07:00 UTC48 days ago | Whales buying | $252.63Hyperliquid-1.1% in that hour | +1.9%more than its usual 0.59% | +6.3%more than its usual 1.1% | -0.3%usual 4.8% |
| Sep 18, 19:00 UTC48 days ago | Whales selling | $250.58Hyperliquid+0.9% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.58% | -0.1%usual 1.1% | +5.0%more than its usual 4.8% |
| Sep 18, 13:00 UTC49 days ago | Whales selling | $249.01Hyperliquid+0.8% in that hour | +1.7%more than its usual 0.59% | +0.5%usual 1.0% | +7.6%more than its usual 4.6% |
| Sep 18, 05:00 UTC49 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 16 min earlier | $241.17Hyperliquid-1.4% in that hour | +1.2%more than its usual 0.59% | +3.7%more than its usual 1.1% | +5.6%more than its usual 4.3% |
| Sep 18, 04:00 UTC49 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 16 min later | $244.48Hyperliquid+1.8% in that hour | -1.4%more than its usual 0.61% | +1.5%more than its usual 1.1% | +4.0%usual 4.4% |
| Sep 17, 12:00 UTC50 days ago | Whales buying | $227.33Hyperliquid+0.3% in that hour | 0.0%usual 0.57% | +0.8%usual 1.1% | +8.6%more than its usual 4.1% |
| Sep 15, 07:00 UTC52 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $226.89Hyperliquid-1.5% in that hour | +0.1%usual 0.59% | -0.9%usual 1.1% | -4.8%more than its usual 3.9% |
| Sep 11, 08:00 UTC56 days ago | Whales buying | $237.89Hyperliquid+1.0% in that hour | -1.7%more than its usual 0.56% | +0.7%usual 1.0% | -1.0%usual 3.7% |
| Sep 10, 14:00 UTC56 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a rise were force-closed 4h earlier | $239.51Hyperliquid-1.4% in that hour | +0.5%usual 0.54% | +0.6%usual 1.0% | +1.0%usual 3.1% |
| Sep 10, 11:00 UTC57 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closedWhales were selling 4h later | $251.21Hyperliquid+0.1% in that hour | -3.0%more than its usual 0.55% | -4.2%more than its usual 1.0% | -7.5%more than its usual 2.8% |
| Sep 7, 14:00 UTC59 days ago | Whales selling | $264.04Hyperliquid-0.2% in that hour | -2.6%more than its usual 0.51% | -1.5%more than its usual 0.90% | -2.3%usual 2.6% |
| Sep 7, 02:00 UTC60 days ago | Whales buying | $274.30Hyperliquid+4.6% in that hour | -1.5%more than its usual 0.52% | -2.4%more than its usual 0.88% | -6.3%more than its usual 2.3% |
| Sep 6, 19:00 UTC60 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 3h earlier | $268.51Hyperliquid+4.1% in that hour | -0.4%usual 0.52% | -0.8%usual 0.88% | -3.5%more than its usual 2.3% |
| Sep 6, 16:00 UTC60 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 3h later | $250.64Hyperliquid+0.6% in that hour | +2.7%more than its usual 0.52% | +6.7%more than its usual 0.92% | +4.5%more than its usual 2.5% |
| Sep 5, 21:00 UTC61 days ago | Whales buying | $236.49Hyperliquid+1.3% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.49% | +0.4%usual 0.88% | +12.4%more than its usual 3.0% |
| Aug 22, 14:00 UTC75 days ago | Whales buying | $221.34Hyperliquid-1.2% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.47% | +1.9%more than its usual 0.93% | +5.8%more than its usual 3.0% |
| Aug 9, 13:00 UTC89 days ago | Whales buying | $209.11Hyperliquid+1.2% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.27% | -0.9%more than its usual 0.50% | -2.7%more than its usual 1.4% |
| Aug 9, 06:00 UTC89 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a fall were force-closed 5h earlier | $205.53Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | +0.4%more than its usual 0.27% | -0.3%usual 0.50% | -0.7%usual 1.5% |
| Aug 9, 00:00 UTC89 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were selling 5h later | $208.79Hyperliquid+2.4% in that hour | -1.6%more than its usual 0.28% | -1.2%more than its usual 0.52% | -2.3%more than its usual 1.6% |
| Aug 8, 06:00 UTC90 days ago | Whales buying | $197.40Hyperliquid+0.9% in that hour | -0.4%more than its usual 0.29% | -0.3%usual 0.60% | +4.1%more than its usual 1.6% |
How far above normal each time ran, and its buy and sell split, come with a paid plan. Start free, no card New accounts get 7 days of Pro. No card, nothing to cancel.
Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.
How this is counted
A time starts when whales trade far more TAO in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. We note the price at the end of that hour, then one hour, four hours and one day later. Within half a percent either way is about flat.
Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is then counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix: 34 of the 39 times here, each marked in the table.
Bets closed by force: within one minute, bets on one side were force-closed on at least three exchanges. A bet turned costly to hold: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% for bets on a rise or 0.03% for bets on a fall. Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same side.
In that hour, under the price, is the move from the end of the hour before to the end of the hour it began in. It is the hour it happened, not what came after.
The usual move is the middle move of TAO's ordinary hours over the same stretch: half of them moved less, half more. Moved more than usual means further than that, up or down.
Ordinary is TAO's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary.
No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is left out of the counts and never treated as a move.
