Radar / XLM
XLM: every time whale trading went unusual
8 times in the last 83 days that whales traded far more XLM in one hour than is normal for it. Also listed: 5 times bets were closed by force, 2 times a bet turned costly to hold.
Whales buying, began 15 min ago.
The case both ways
Facts with their sources, and what followed the last times of each kind. Neither side is weighed.
Points up
- Whales mostly bought XLM in the unusual time that began 15 min ago.
- Chainlink price feeds went live on the Stellar network, which the foundation described as serving a tokenized asset ecosystem of more than $4 billion.stellar · 14 Oct
- DTCC and the Stellar Development Foundation announced plans to make DTC-custodied securities available as tokens on the Stellar network, with availability targeted for the first half of 2027.coindesk · 27 May
- The Stellar community voted in October 2019 to remove the fixed 1% annual inflation of XLM, so no new XLM can be created under the protocol.SEC
Points down
- The Stellar Development Foundation held about 17.9 billion XLM in its own wallets, according to its registration statement filed in September 2025.SEC · 24 Sep 2025
Dated ahead
- US October producer price index (BLS)
- FOMC minutes release
- Stellar Bell (Protocol 30) mainnet validator vote
- PCE inflation report (October 2026) 7 up · 11 down · -0.9%
The last times
- The last 1 times whales bought it like this: higher 1 times, lower 0 a day later.
- XLM around the last 41 Fed decisions: higher 17 times, lower 23 a day later, a typical move of -1% and -0.9% over the week.our own prices
- XLM around the last 21 PCE inflation reports: higher 7 times, lower 11 a day later, a typical move of -0.9% and -3.7% over the week.our own prices
Stellar is an open-source, decentralized network co-founded in 2014 by Jed McCaleb and Joyce Kim to facilitate the fast and low-cost transfer of value across different... (Smart Contract Platform, Layer 1 (L1), Real World Assets (RWA))
XLM price, with each time marked
Hourly, Oct 11 to Nov 11. A break in the line is an hour with no price.
whales buying far more than normalwhales selling far more than normalforced closes or a costly fee
Where the price was a day later
Every time, newest first
Times are UTC. Under each move: XLM's usual move over the same stretch around then.
| When | What | Price then | 1 hour later | 4 hours later | 1 day later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 23:00 UTC15 min ago | Whales buyingnow | no price | not due yet | not due yet | not due yet |
| Nov 7, 19:00 UTC4 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1507-0.3% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.34% | +0.2%usual 0.69% | -0.5%usual 1.8% |
| Oct 30, 16:00 UTC12 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1702+0.3% in that hour | -1.4%more than its usual 0.34% | -1.1%more than its usual 0.69% | +0.1%usual 1.3% |
| Oct 25, 12:00 UTC17 days ago | Whales trading both ways | $0.1691-0.4% in that hour | -0.3%usual 0.27% | +0.6%usual 0.64% | +0.2%usual 1.2% |
| Oct 20, 01:00 UTC23 days ago | Whales trading both ways | $0.17690.0% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.28% | +0.3%usual 0.68% | +3.6%more than its usual 1.3% |
| Oct 15, 15:00 UTC27 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1852+1.0% in that hour | -0.4%more than its usual 0.33% | -0.1%usual 0.71% | -2.2%more than its usual 2.1% |
| Sep 22, 01:00 UTC51 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 4h earlier | $0.2121Hyperliquid-0.7% in that hour | +0.5%usual 0.58% | +0.3%usual 1.0% | +2.7%usual 3.3% |
| Sep 21, 21:00 UTC51 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 4h later | $0.2168Hyperliquid+1.1% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.58% | -2.1%more than its usual 1.0% | -0.7%usual 3.4% |
| Sep 21, 15:00 UTC51 days ago | Whales selling | $0.21Hyperliquid-0.2% in that hour | -0.7%more than its usual 0.58% | +1.2%more than its usual 1.0% | +2.2%usual 3.4% |
| Sep 20, 15:00 UTC52 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1944Hyperliquid+1.3% in that hour | +1.8%more than its usual 0.55% | +1.0%usual 1.0% | +8.0%more than its usual 3.4% |
| Sep 19, 12:00 UTC53 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $0.1997Hyperliquid+2.5% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.55% | +0.2%usual 1.0% | -4.4%more than its usual 3.5% |
| Sep 16, 08:00 UTC57 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $0.1741Hyperliquid-0.6% in that hour | +0.9%more than its usual 0.51% | +0.2%usual 1.0% | +5.3%more than its usual 3.2% |
| Sep 14, 16:00 UTC58 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $0.1946Hyperliquid+1.1% in that hour | +1.0%more than its usual 0.47% | +0.3%usual 1.0% | -2.6%usual 3.1% |
| Sep 7, 00:00 UTC66 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closed | $0.1882Hyperliquid+0.1% in that hour | -0.8%more than its usual 0.39% | +1.5%more than its usual 0.69% | +3.1%more than its usual 2.1% |
| Aug 18, 08:00 UTC86 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $0.1542Hyperliquid+0.3% in that hour | -0.3%usual 0.37% | -1.0%more than its usual 0.71% | +1.5%usual 1.7% |
How far above normal each time ran, and its buy and sell split, come with a paid plan. Start free, no card New accounts get 7 days of Pro. No card, nothing to cancel.
Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.
How this is counted
A time starts when whales trade far more XLM in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. We note the price at the end of that hour, then one hour, four hours and one day later. Within half a percent either way is about flat.
Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is then counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix: 9 of the 15 times here, each marked in the table.
Bets closed by force: within one minute, bets on one side were force-closed on at least three exchanges. A bet turned costly to hold: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% for bets on a rise or 0.03% for bets on a fall. Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same side.
In that hour, under the price, is the move from the end of the hour before to the end of the hour it began in. It is the hour it happened, not what came after.
The usual move is the middle move of XLM's ordinary hours over the same stretch: half of them moved less, half more. Moved more than usual means further than that, up or down.
Ordinary is XLM's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary.
No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is left out of the counts and never treated as a move.
