Radar / ARB
ARB: every time whale trading went unusual
26 times in the last 66 days that whales traded far more ARB in one hour than is normal for it. Also listed: 10 times bets were closed by force, 2 times a bet turned costly to hold.
Whales selling, began 9 hours ago. The price is +7.1% since it began at $0.1523 on Hyperliquid.
The case both ways
Facts with their sources, and what followed the last times of each kind. Neither side is weighed.
Points up
- Offchain Labs said it had increased its direct holdings of ARB under a previously approved purchase plan.cointelegraph
- The Arbitrum Foundation reported that the network's monthly revenue had risen about fivefold.finance.yahoo
Points down
- Whales mostly sold ARB in the unusual time that began 9 hours ago.
- About 92.65 million ARB, roughly 0.93% of total supply, is scheduled to unlock on November 16, 2026, with 56.13 million going to the team and future team and advisors and 36.52 million to investors, according to CoinGecko.coingecko
- ArbitrumDAO opened a vote on October 29, 2026 on allocating an additional 100 million ARB from the DAO treasury to incentives for USDG adoption.tokenpost · 29 Oct
- A U.S. federal court restraining notice could still block the approved transfer of the frozen ETH, according to Decrypt via Yahoo Finance.finance.yahoo
Dated ahead
- Scheduled ARB token unlock of about 92.65 million ARB
- PCE inflation report (October 2026) 1 up · 7 down · -1.4%
- Fed rate decision and projections 1 up · 5 down · -2.0%
- PCE inflation report (November 2026) 1 up · 7 down · -1.4%
The last times
- The last 15 times whales sold it like this: higher 8 times, lower 6 a day later.
It is an optimistic rollup and the leading L2 in terms of TVL. (Smart Contract Platform, Arbitrum Ecosystem, Ethereum Ecosystem)
ARB price, with each time marked
Hourly, Sep 30 to Nov 5. A break in the line is an hour with no price.
whales buying far more than normalwhales selling far more than normalforced closes or a costly fee
Where the price was a day later
Every time, newest first
Times are UTC. Under each move: ARB's usual move over the same stretch around then.
| When | What | Price then | 1 hour later | 4 hours later | 1 day later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 15:00 UTC9 hours ago | Whales sellingnow | $0.1523Hyperliquid-3.8% in that hour | +1.6%more than its usual 0.49% | +4.4%more than its usual 0.93% | not due yet |
| Nov 4, 15:00 UTC34 hours ago | Whales selling | $0.1684Hyperliquid+1.1% in that hour | -1.0%more than its usual 0.51% | -4.4%more than its usual 1.0% | -9.6%more than its usual 2.2% |
| Nov 2, 14:00 UTC3 days ago | Whales buying | $0.1595Hyperliquid+0.3% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.50% | -1.9%more than its usual 0.87% | +0.5%usual 2.1% |
| Oct 30, 00:00 UTC7 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1555+0.8% in that hour | -1.3%more than its usual 0.43% | +5.4%more than its usual 0.79% | +6.3%more than its usual 1.9% |
| Oct 16, 17:00 UTC20 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1921-0.8% in that hour | -0.4%usual 0.56% | -0.1%usual 1.3% | -5.7%more than its usual 4.4% |
| Sep 28, 03:00 UTC39 days ago | Whales selling | $0.2141Hyperliquid-2.5% in that hour | +0.4%usual 0.72% | -3.5%more than its usual 1.2% | -8.2%more than its usual 2.1% |
| Sep 25, 12:00 UTC42 days ago | Whales trading both ways | $0.2236Hyperliquid-0.8% in that hour | -0.6%usual 0.88% | -0.5%usual 1.4% | -0.5%usual 2.4% |
| Sep 24, 06:00 UTC43 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $0.2175Hyperliquid+0.2% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.94% | -2.1%more than its usual 1.6% | -1.1%usual 2.6% |
| Sep 22, 23:00 UTC44 days ago | Whales buying | $0.2357Hyperliquid+4.3% in that hour | +2.2%more than its usual 1.0% | +5.8%more than its usual 1.7% | -8.4%more than its usual 3.2% |
| Sep 22, 08:00 UTC45 days ago | Whales buying | $0.2211Hyperliquid+1.0% in that hour | -0.9%usual 1.0% | +0.3%usual 1.8% | +8.3%more than its usual 3.8% |
| Sep 22, 01:00 UTC45 days ago | Whales selling | $0.2232Hyperliquid-0.4% in that hour | -1.0%more than its usual 1.0% | -0.7%usual 1.8% | +9.5%more than its usual 4.2% |
| Sep 21, 13:00 UTC46 days ago | Whales selling | $0.2389Hyperliquid-2.7% in that hour | -1.4%more than its usual 1.0% | -5.7%more than its usual 1.8% | -9.1%more than its usual 4.5% |
| Sep 20, 22:00 UTC46 days ago | Whales selling | $0.2176Hyperliquid-0.2% in that hour | +0.2%usual 0.93% | 0.0%usual 1.7% | +3.9%usual 4.3% |
| Sep 20, 15:00 UTC46 days ago | Whales selling | $0.2039Hyperliquid+2.4% in that hour | +3.8%more than its usual 0.93% | +3.5%more than its usual 1.7% | +13.5%more than its usual 3.9% |
| Sep 19, 00:00 UTC48 days ago | Whales selling | $0.219Hyperliquid-1.2% in that hour | -1.7%more than its usual 0.88% | -3.3%more than its usual 1.6% | -7.7%more than its usual 3.7% |
| Sep 18, 18:00 UTC48 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were selling 4h earlier | $0.2181Hyperliquid-1.3% in that hour | +0.8%usual 0.92% | +0.3%usual 1.7% | -5.2%more than its usual 3.8% |
| Sep 18, 13:00 UTC48 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a fall were force-closed 4h later | $0.2092Hyperliquid-1.4% in that hour | +0.7%usual 0.90% | +5.7%more than its usual 1.7% | 0.0%usual 3.7% |
| Sep 17, 01:00 UTC50 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1645Hyperliquid-0.8% in that hour | -0.8%usual 0.91% | +1.4%usual 1.7% | +20.4%more than its usual 3.8% |
| Sep 16, 05:00 UTC51 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a rise were force-closed 5h earlier | $0.1546Hyperliquid+0.9% in that hour | -1.5%more than its usual 0.91% | +2.7%more than its usual 1.7% | +7.9%more than its usual 3.9% |
| Sep 16, 00:00 UTC51 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closedWhales were buying 5h later | $0.1497Hyperliquid-1.4% in that hour | -0.2%usual 0.94% | +2.4%more than its usual 1.7% | +10.8%more than its usual 3.9% |
| Sep 14, 21:00 UTC52 days ago | Whales selling | $0.136Hyperliquid-3.4% in that hour | -1.4%more than its usual 0.89% | -1.0%usual 1.7% | +6.2%more than its usual 3.9% |
| Sep 11, 21:00 UTC55 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1384Hyperliquid-0.9% in that hour | -0.5%usual 0.91% | +2.6%more than its usual 1.8% | +0.6%usual 5.0% |
| Sep 11, 10:00 UTC56 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1403Hyperliquid-1.2% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.89% | +4.7%more than its usual 1.7% | +1.9%usual 4.9% |
| Sep 9, 23:00 UTC57 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1494Hyperliquid-1.5% in that hour | -1.1%more than its usual 0.92% | +0.8%usual 1.7% | -6.4%more than its usual 4.1% |
| Sep 9, 15:00 UTC57 days ago | Whales selling | $0.1535Hyperliquid-6.2% in that hour | -1.5%more than its usual 0.86% | -1.6%usual 1.7% | -2.4%usual 4.6% |
| Sep 8, 05:00 UTC59 days ago | Whales buying | $0.1749Hyperliquid+2.3% in that hour | -1.5%more than its usual 0.87% | +0.1%usual 1.7% | -4.8%more than its usual 4.5% |
| Sep 7, 18:00 UTC59 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were selling 29 min earlier | $0.1664Hyperliquid+0.1% in that hour | +2.6%more than its usual 0.94% | +1.5%usual 1.9% | +0.8%usual 4.0% |
| Sep 7, 17:00 UTC59 days ago | Whales sellingBets on a fall were force-closed 29 min later | $0.1662Hyperliquid+0.5% in that hour | +0.1%usual 0.89% | +2.4%more than its usual 1.8% | +1.0%usual 4.1% |
| Sep 7, 03:00 UTC60 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1753Hyperliquid-5.3% in that hour | -0.1%usual 1.0% | -4.3%more than its usual 1.9% | -2.8%usual 4.7% |
| Sep 6, 19:00 UTC60 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1837Hyperliquid-1.1% in that hour | +0.7%usual 1.0% | +3.1%more than its usual 1.9% | -7.1%more than its usual 5.0% |
| Sep 6, 10:00 UTC61 days ago | Bets on a rise force-closed | $0.1957Hyperliquid+0.9% in that hour | -0.9%usual 1.0% | -4.8%more than its usual 1.8% | -15.0%more than its usual 5.1% |
| Sep 6, 00:00 UTC61 days ago | Bets on a fall force-closedWhales were buying 5h earlier | $0.1935Hyperliquid+9.1% in that hour | -0.1%usual 0.92% | +0.3%usual 1.8% | -2.0%usual 5.1% |
| Sep 5, 19:00 UTC61 days ago | Whales buyingBets on a fall were force-closed 5h later | $0.1496Hyperliquid+4.2% in that hour | +8.3%more than its usual 0.86% | +18.5%more than its usual 1.7% | +22.7%more than its usual 5.1% |
| Sep 4, 09:00 UTC63 days ago | Whales buying | $0.1405Hyperliquid+2.6% in that hour | -2.8%more than its usual 0.82% | -3.7%more than its usual 1.6% | -3.3%usual 4.9% |
| Sep 3, 17:00 UTC63 days ago | Whales buying | $0.133Hyperliquid+1.4% in that hour | +8.7%more than its usual 0.77% | +4.4%more than its usual 1.5% | -0.8%usual 4.9% |
| Sep 3, 02:00 UTC64 days ago | Whales buying | $0.1322Hyperliquid+6.0% in that hour | -3.6%more than its usual 0.76% | +2.2%more than its usual 1.4% | +4.1%usual 4.8% |
| Sep 2, 10:00 UTC65 days ago | Whales selling | $0.111Hyperliquid-3.4% in that hour | -3.1%more than its usual 0.71% | +4.5%more than its usual 1.4% | +22.0%more than its usual 4.4% |
| Aug 17, 00:00 UTC81 days ago | Costly to bet on a fall | $0.07383Hyperliquid+0.5% in that hour | +0.7%more than its usual 0.44% | +1.6%more than its usual 0.92% | +1.8%usual 2.0% |
How far above normal each time ran, and its buy and sell split, come with a paid plan. Start free, no card New accounts get 7 days of Pro. No card, nothing to cancel.
Not financial advice. A past move does not tell you the next one.
How this is counted
A time starts when whales trade far more ARB in one hour than is normal for it, after at least six quiet hours. We note the price at the end of that hour, then one hour, four hours and one day later. Within half a percent either way is about flat.
Prices are our own hourly prices across exchanges where we hold them. For an hour we do not hold, they are Hyperliquid's hourly prices, and that time is then counted on Hyperliquid's prices from start to finish, never a mix: 36 of the 38 times here, each marked in the table.
Bets closed by force: within one minute, bets on one side were force-closed on at least three exchanges. A bet turned costly to hold: the fee to keep a bet open, averaged across exchanges, went past 0.05% for bets on a rise or 0.03% for bets on a fall. Each is compared only with earlier times of its own kind on the same side.
In that hour, under the price, is the move from the end of the hour before to the end of the hour it began in. It is the hour it happened, not what came after.
The usual move is the middle move of ARB's ordinary hours over the same stretch: half of them moved less, half more. Moved more than usual means further than that, up or down.
Ordinary is ARB's other hours within seven days either side of each time, counted the same way on the same prices, with every hour inside an unusual time left out. A time with fewer than 72 such hours around it has no ordinary.
No price means neither has a price for that moment. It is left out of the counts and never treated as a move.
